Read on for our first forecast for race conditions from our friends at Buoyweather. All updates will also be available on our Weather Page.
Brief Overview: A surge of NW winds and building short period seas is expected just offshore for the beginning of the race. Lighter winds/lower seas are anticipated near the Southern California coast though. The surge of higher winds and seas offshore is expected to relax over early to mid next week. A small but long period WNW swell will also mix in with the shorter period waves this weekend before easing into next week. Modest long period S to SW swell will also impact the waters throughout the event. These should have minor impacts on the race except very close to shore.
Long Range Marine Forecast Outlook: Most of the reliable computer models agree that a weak cold front will move through NW California on Wednesday, allowing stronger (~1032mb) high pressure to rebuild over the Northeast Pacific Ocean. This will set up a surge of NW/N winds off of California and Baja for Thursday and Friday. Widespread NW winds of 15-25kts are expected offshore but winds within 20nm of the coast will be significantly lighter, as a coastal eddy develops. The eddy sets of light southerly to variable wind near the Southern California and Northern Baja coasts on Friday morning/early afternoon.
The surge offshore will set up increasing NW to WNW wind waves for much of the race area, especially south of San Clemente Island where short period (8-11s) seas of 6 to 10 ft. are expected within 50nm of the coast. Higher seas are likely beyond 50nm especially Friday and Saturday north of Cedros Island.
The strong high-pressure system that is responsible for this surge of NW winds and seas is forecast to weaken later in the weekend and early next week. As a result, winds and seas should begin relaxing for the end of the event. This leads to mainly 10-20kt NW winds beyond 20nm while winds closer to the coast of Baja will be light and variable in the morning before a WNW sea breeze develops in the afternoon in the 8-15kt range. Confidence begins to diminish at these time frames so please stay tuned for Thursday’s update for more details.
Other Swell: The Buoyweather forecast team has also been tracking a couple of distant storms that will be responsible for some small episodes of longer period swell over the race area. The first is a weakening storm now moving into the central North Pacific that will send a small (2-4ft) WNW swell to the region over the weekend that will gradually ease from north to south for early to mid next week. Periods of this event will be in the 15-18s range, which will lead to roughly double those heights as the waves shoal nearshore along exposed shorelines. This will also mix with similar sized S to SW swell from recent storm activity in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere swell activity is expected to linger throughout most of the event. As a result, mariners should be advised of associated hazards very close to shore.
Next Update: Thursday March 21.
Prepared by Mark Willis and Kevin Wallis
Useful Buoyweather Links:
Marine Forecast near Catalina Channel
Marine Forecast just offshore Ensenada
Marine Forecast just offshore Punta Baja
Marine Forecast near Cedros Island
Marine Forecast just offshore Abreojos
Marine Forecast near Cabo San Lazaro
